New Mana Party splits Maori Party support

The new Mana Party could split Maori voting, allowing Labour to edge out the Maori Party in both electorate and party vote contests.

A May 3 to 7 poll of 517 Maori nationwide by Horizon Research finds the Mana Party could win 12.6% of electorate and 15.1% of party votes cast by Maori nationwide.

This would allow Labour to win 21.2% of votes cast by Maori in all Maori and general electorates, compared with 20.7% for the Maori Party. A large group of 28.1% is undecided.

Labour would attract 22.6% of party votes cast by Maori nationwide, compared with 19.9% for the Maori Party, while 12.1% don’t know.

Among those who voted for the Maori Party in Maori seats in 2008 only 37.7% remain loyal in electorate voting and 33% in party voting.

The weighted survey, conducted using the specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel, with a maximum margin of error of + or – 4.3%, also finds:

• Maori are split 31.2% for the formation of the Mana Party and 30.7% against (38.2 neutral)

• 55.3% think the by election Mana Party leader Hone Harawira announced he would cause by resigning his Te Tai Tokerau Maori seat is a waste of money, with most aware its estimated cost is about $500,000

• Only 18.9% think he is right to force a by election, while 31.8% think he should have waited until the November 26 general election

• 39.7% think the new Mana Party is really only about Hone Harawira, and

Maori do not want him unopposed a by election:

• 69.8% want the Maori Party to stand a candidate (including 69.4% of those who voted for the Maori Party in Maori seats at the last election in 2008)

• 67.3% want Labour to stand a candidate (including 69.9% of those who voted for the Maori Party in Maori seats in 2008)

• 56% want National to stand a candidate (54% of Maori Party seat voters).

The Mana Party could also damage Maori Party membership.

Some 42% of the Maori Party’s Maori electorate voters would consider joining the Mana Party.

Overall, 30.5% of Maori surveyed said they would consider becoming a member of the new Mana Party.

The Labour and Maori parties are seen as more likely than Mana to advance Maori interests in a number of areas.

Horizon research in March identified health, unemployment and education as the issues Maori most want the government to act on in the next year.

In this survey Labour was seen as most likely to advance Maori on employment (52%, Maori Party 50.6%, Mana 42.4%). The Maori Party is ahead on advancing Maori education (60.1%, Labour 50.3%, Mana 42.9%) and health (62.3%, Labour 47.8%, Mana 43.8%).

The survey is weighted by age, gender, personal income, education, employment status and region to provide a representative sample of the Maori population.  The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 4.3% on the national sample.  Results are for the nationwide sample, not for any individual Maori or other general electorate. Sample sizes do not allow for a reliable indication of any by election which might be held in the Te Tai Tokerau Maori electorate.

Results may be used with accreditation to Horizon Research www.horizonpoll.co.nz

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: +64 21 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

The Horizon Research Maori Panel is comprised of people invited to join by e-mail, who match the profile of the Maori population at the 2006 census.  Lists of panellists may be weighted before being invited to complete surveys. Respondents to all surveys can be weighted on up to six criteria to ensure a representative sample of the Maori population is achieved.