59% of intending NZ First voters prefer a Labour-led coalition

Winston Peters faces the prospect of going against the wishes of nearly 59% of those who intend to vote for his party if he decides to support a National-led government after the September 20 general election.

A new HorizonPoll finds 58.8% of those intending to give their party vote to New Zealand First would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after the election.

41.2% would prefer a National-led coalition.

The survey of 2,382 adults nationwide, representing the 18+ population at the last census, finds Labour has slipped well behind National among all respondents as the main party preferred coalition leader.

Only 25.7% now think Labour will lead a coalition after the election if one is needed. 74.3% think National will lead it.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead it, 58.8% say National, 41.2% Labour.

There has been a significant change in preferences since May, when Labour was preferred by 57.7% and National by 42.3%.

The survey, which has a maximum margin of error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level, finds New Zealand First would achieve more than 5% of party votes cast  “if an election were held tomorrow” – and would decide which main party would lead a coalition.

The results illustrate the fine line NZF leader Winston Peter will be treading in deciding which main party to support, if any, in a coalition and maintain the support of about half his intending party voters.

Horizon Research’s HorizonPoll online research panel is recruited to match the New Zealand adult population at the last census. Results are also weighted by six factors, including party voted for at the 2011 general election, to ensure a representative sample.

The main party preferred coalition survey was conducted between July 28 and August 6, 2014.

Full political poll results are available to Horizon’s clients by contacting Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz, telephone 0-21 076 2040.