Final exit poll indicates Brown will be super city Mayor

A final HorizonPoll survey indicates Len Brown will comfortably win the Auckland super city Mayoralty.

Mr Brown has 53.7% support among those who have cast votes. John Banks has 23.8%, Colin Craig 10.4%, others 6.4% and 4.6% will not say who they have voted for.

The sample size is 432. Respondents are weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, employment status and party vote 2008. The maximum margin of error is +/- 4.7%.

Results are  for those who say they have voted between September 30 and 10am October 8, 2010.

Applying the maximum margin of error and all won’t say votes to Banks would still result in a Brown win by about 10%.

HorizonPoll says it believes the final turnout will be 53.7%. This is up from an HorizonPoll prediction of 52% a week ago.  At Thursday October 7 the returning office had ballot papers from 45.56% of voters.

The survey also indicates that Brown will win five the seven sub cities contributing to the new super city. Banks remains ahead in Rodney and marginally ahead on the North Shore. Sample sizes are smaller within sub cities so results are indicative only.

In  Auckland  the vote is Banks 20%, Brown  62%;  Franklin has Banks 26%, Brown 58%; Manukau:  Banks 18%, Brown 65%; North Shore: Banks 35%, Brown 32%; Papakura: Banks  8%, Brown 62%; Rodney: Banks 49%, Brown 30%; Waitakere: Banks 20%, Brown 55%.