HorizonPoll shows National’s vote up on 2008

The HorizonPoll which shows New Zealand First may determine which of the main parties governs after the next election also shows National’s vote is higher than at the 2008 election.

HorizonPoll says people interpreting the poll should bear in mind it expresses results as a percentage of the total adult population, not just of decided voters as most other polls do.

At the 2008 general election, National won 32.9% of the population aged 18 plus.

In HorizonPoll’s November survey, covering 1,833 intending voters, National has 34.7%.

Labour won 25% of the population aged 18 plus in 2008.

The latest poll, gives it 28.3%.

The HorizonPoll panel is recruited to match the national population at the last census, and also captures members’ party vote at 2008. The public can also opt into the panel. HorizonPoll applies a market leading weighting system to ensure results represent the national population.

The latest party vote survey was conducted between November 16 and 22. It is weighted by age, gender, personal income, employment status, ethnicity and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample. The margin of error is +/- 2.2%.

People were asked how they would vote. Those who said they did not know were then asked their preference, which reduced the undecided group by about half. Those who said they would not vote were also removed.

HorizonPoll manager Grant McInman says his firm releases information on undecided voters and those who won’t say how they are going to vote. This provides a more complete picture of the electorate than surveys which release results for decided voters only.

HorizonPoll correctly called the turnout and outcome of the recent Auckland super city Mayoral election while some other polls had the two main candidates running neck and neck.

More information on the November party vote poll and results is available here.