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Research Results

More believe economy will decline this year

27 Mar 11

More believe economy will decline this year

A majority of business people think the economy will decline this year, according to a new HorizonPoll.


More than 50% of business proprietors, managers and executives think the economy will decline this year.


By party vote, those who most expect an economic decline voted National and ACT in 2008.


The weighted Horizon Research survey of 2,195 people nationwide between March 12 and 23, 2011, shows overall


  • 17% expect the economy to grow in the coming year
  •  41% expect it to decline
  •  24% neither grow nor decline, and
  • 12.3% don’t know.

Official figures released on March 24 show the country’s gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in the three months ending December 31, narrowly avoiding a return to recession.


A January HorizonPoll survey found a net 6% of respondents thought the country would avoid a double dip recession.


Earthquakes struck Canterbury again on February 22.


The latest survey, with a maximum margin of error of +/-2.1% shows more think there will now be economic decline than growth.


Among people making purchasing decisions for their organisations valued at $100,000 or more,  54% think there will be decline.


By sector, 66% employed in manufacturing think there will be a decline, followed by 55.5% in property and business services, and 52.5% in construction.


Among senior decision makers expecting a decline are 51.1% of business proprietors and self- employed (21.6% expect growth), 52.1% of business managers and executives (21.4%) and 48% of professionals and senior Government officials (26.7%).


Among party voters, 49% of National’s 2008 supporters think there will be decline this year (22% growth).


Results for other parties: ACT 49.6% (23.1%),United Future 53.3% decline (20%), Green 30.2% (14.1%), Labour 37.1% (13.2%), Maori Party 32.1% (25.3%), New Zealand First 35.7% (16%), other parties 32.4% (13.9%).


Detailed results are available for download here.


In Sunday Star Times coverage of this poll, BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says the results were not at all surprising and are in line with his own research.


For more information contact:


Grant McInman
Horizon Research

Tel:021 076 2040