Act breaks through 5% support threshold

The Act Party now has 5.3% voter support.

A new HorizonPoll conducted between Thursday and Friday shows Act is up from 3.7% in April after making Don Brash its leader.

The first result for the new Mana Party shows it has 2.3% party vote support nationwide, ahead of the Maori Party on 2.1%. Mana is drawing 30.5% of its support from those who voted for the Maori Party in the 2008 election.

Covering 1,744 respondents, the poll also shows the country goes into Budget week with the country evenly split over which potential coalitions might govern after the November 26 general election.

Weighted and with a margin of error of +/- 2.3%, the Horizon Research survey finds:

• The current National-Act-Maori Party-United Future coalition has 44.9% support

• A Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition would have 43.5%.

If the Mana Party wins a seat and votes with a Labour led coalition, and Jim Anderton’s Progressives support of 0.6% is added, a Labour led coalition would have 46.4% support.

The 4.9% who remain undecided or without a preference are likely to decide the result of the November 26 general election, and the minor parties will determine which of the main parties will form a Government.

Act and Maori Party support will be vital to National if it is to form the next government.

The party vote results are for voters who are registered to vote, and for undecided voters who indicate a preference and who are likely or will definitely vote.

The survey, taken in the two days after the Government indicated it will cut  the $20-a-week tax break for 1.6 million KiwiSaver members, finds National down from 37.7% of potential voters in April to 36.6%.

Labour has made the biggest gain of 3%, up from 23.9% to 26.9%.

The number of people who don’t know, after being pressed for a preference, is down significantly from 8.4% to 4.9%.

ACT LEADERSHIP CHANGE

The Act Party leadership change from Rodney Hide to Don Brash has attracted back its 2008 voters.

Act voter loyalty has risen from 42.7% in April to 64.4% in May.

Act voters have come back after mainly drifting to National: In April National had 31.9% of Act voters. Now it has 22.9%.

Of all respondents, 15.6% support the leadership change, 56.2% are neutral and 28.3% oppose it (15.9% strongly).

The change has the approval of Act supporters:

• 64.6% of people who voted Act in 2008 support the leadership change
• 19.5% are neutral, and
• 16.1% oppose.

MANA PARTY

Of all respondents, only 11.3% support the formation of the Mana Party, while 51.6% oppose and 37.2% are neutral.

49.7% say the party is not attractive to them and 36.8% think it will weaken the Maori Party, while 4.2% find it attractive and 6.3% believe in what it stands for.

The 2.3% support is coming mainly from Maori Party voters (30.5%) and United Future (17.2%).

The results indicate the Maori Party needs to hold seats and stop Mana winning any to stay politically viable.

For full details please click here.

METHODOLOGY

May 12 to 14 2011

Respondents: 1,845 overall, 1744 in party vote results.

Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population.  The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.3%.

People are invited to join the HorizonPoll national online research panel based on the profile of the population at the 2006 census. Less than 5% of the panel is self-enrolled and an iterative rim weighting system, using up to six factors at one time, including party vote 2008, ensures results are robust within the confidence levels stipulated.

Party vote results are expressed as a percentage of the 18+ population.

Results may be used with accreditation to Horizon Research (www.horizonpoll.co.nz).

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman

Manager, Horizon Research

Telephone: +64 (21) 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz