HorizonPoll: Minor parties may decide who governs

National’s support is up 2.2% and 79% think it is most likely to lead the next government.

 

However, the latest Horizon Research poll of 2,295 registered and intending voters nationwide shows National does not have enough support to govern alone – and will rely on the minor parties for a coalition after the November 26 general election.

 

The weighted poll was conducted between September 12 and 23 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2%.

 

National is attracting slightly more support among the 18+ adult population than it achieved at the last election.

 

However, its potential problem in gaining enough support in Parliament could be caused by the new Mana Party. It is collapsing support for National’s Maori Party coalition partner.

 

Among  voters who are registered, intend to vote, have decided which party to support or who don’t know but express a current preference, Mana has 2.2% (up from 1.9% in July). The Maori Party has 1.1%. Some 21% of those supporting Mana voted for the Maori Party at the 2008 general election.

 

National has 39.5% (up 2.2% since July), Act 4.8% and United Future 0.8%.

 

Labour has 27% (no change), the Green party 10.7% (+ 0.5%), New Zealand First 7.3% (+1.3%).

 

While 13.2% of initial respondents said they didn’t know who they would vote for, this dropped to just 3.4% when they were asked for a current preference. Preferences of the don’t know group have been added to party vote results.

 

This provides the current National led coalition with 46.2%, a potential Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition with 45%.

 

Converted to seats and assuming ACT wins the Epsom electorate and United Future wins Ohariu- Belmont, the Maori Party retains three Maori seats (and Mana wins two Maori seats and has a third seat reflecting its overall level of voter support), National would have 51 seats in a 122 seat Parliament.

 

A National - ACT - Maori United Future coalition would have 61 members.

Labour and Greens would have 49 seats, and 58 seats with New Zealand First.

In this event, National would have to do a deal with either Mana or New Zealand First, or try to govern with 1 seat short of a majority.

 

A Labour led group would need support from Mana.

 

Horizon Research says much will depend on voting turnout and how the 187,000 electors who were registered but decided not to vote in 2008 behave on November 26. Currently they tend slightly more to Labour than National.

 

Currently National enjoys highest loyalty among those who voted in 2008. 81.2% say they’ll vote National again. Labour has 63.6% loyalty and while it is picking up 35% of those who voted for Jim Anderton’s Progressives in 2008, 14.3% of current Green support is coming from 2008 Labour voters.

 

Act has 63.7% loyalty, Green 75.8%, New Zealand First 71.6%. Only 33% of 2008 Maori Party voters will currently back it again. The recently formed New Citizens Party has 1.2% and other parties 3.8%. (Polling to measure specific support for the new Conservative Party will start in October).

 

At the 2008 election 97% of those aged 18+ were registered to vote and 79% actually voted.

 

Among the total 18+ population in 2008, National received 32.9% support, Labour 25%.

 

Horizon Research says the current poll shows 79% of respondents saying they will “definitely vote”.

 

The full Horizon Net Potential Vote analysis spreadsheet is here.

 

WHICH PARTY WILL BE BETTER FOR YOUR HOUSEHOLD?

 

Horizon polling shows than despite the National-led Government’s performance being poorer than expected, and more households reporting a worse financial position than better since the Government came in, more voters say National will govern better for their households than Labour.

 

Some 43.4% think national will deliver better governance for their household, 34.3% Labour while 22.3% don’t know.

 

Overall, which of the two main parties do you think will govern best for your own household during the next 3 years?

A.	Labour		34.3%
B.	National		43.4%
C.	I'm not sure		22.3%

 

 

 

More (42.8%) think the country is in the right direction rather than off on the wrong track (39.5%).

 

All in all, do you think things in New Zealand are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

 

A.	Right track		42.8%
B.	Wrong track		39.5%
C.	Don't know		17.7%

 

38% approve of the job the Government is doing in handling the economy, 24.5% are neutral and 33.9% disapprove.

 

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job the Government is doing in handling the economy?

 

A.	Strongly approve		6.1%
B.	Approve		31.9%
C.	Neither approve nor disapprove		24.5%
D.	Disapprove		20.2%
E.	Strongly disapprove		13.7%
F.	Don't know		3.7%

 

45.3% say their households’ financial position is worse since National formed a Government in 2008, 36.9% say it’s no better or worse and 17.8% say it’s better.

 

Overall, is the financial position of your household better or worse since National formed a Government in 2008?

 

A.	Much better off		2.2%
B.	Better off		15.6%
C.	Neither better off nor worse off		36.9%
D.	Worse off		32.8%
E.	Much worse off		12.5%

 

42.5% say the National-led Government’s overall performance has been as good or better than expected, while 49.5% say it hasn’t been as good as they liked or much worse than expected.

How has the National-led Government's overall performance met your expectations?

 

 

A.	Better than I expected		6.1%
B.	As good as I expected		36.2%
C.	Not as good as I would have liked		31.5%
D.	Much worse than I expected		18%
E.	Not sure		8.1%

 

 

SOME KEY QUESTIONS RELATING TO THE ELECTION OUTCOME:

 

     

Can New Zealand First hold its support level?

Will ACT win Epsom?

Will Peter Dunne win Ohariu - Belmont?

Will Hone Harawira hold Te Tai Tokerau?

Will Mana win more than one Maori seat and achieve 2.2% support to have 3 seats?

Will the Maori Party hold onto its current five seats or have 3 Maori seats?

Who will govern with Winston Peters or Hone Harawira if their support is necessary to form a coalition government?

 

 

FOOTNOTE:

 

Horizon Research results differ from those of other published polls traditionally conducted in New Zealand. Those express decided voters only as a percentage of 100. Their results exclude don’t know voters and those who are choosing not to vote.  None state they include previous party vote in their weighting criteria or that they are precluding unregistered respondents who do not intend to vote.

 

Horizon Research includes decided voters and  don’t know voters with a preference – all of whom must be registered and intending to vote, and expresses resulting parties’ support as a percentage of all respondents.

 

Horizon weights it polls by age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income, employment status and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample. It also seeks respondent numbers twice as high as other polls, in order to provide more reliability when assessing the support for and possible role of minor parties in a MMP system.

 

This results summary is accompanied by a complete Horizon Net Potential Vote Analysis spreadsheet.

 

For further information please contact:

 

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz