5.5% gap between preferred National-Labour coalition options

The first poll of the 2011 election campaign shows 42.1% of voters would prefer a National-led government after the November 26 general election.

A Labour-led government is preferred by 36.6% (a 5.5% gap). However, 21.3% are undecided.

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll of 887 voters between Tuesday and Friday mornings this week (October 26-28, 2011) shows issues party leaders could face in forming possible coalitions if one is needed after the election:

• 53.3% of people who cast a party vote for the Maori Party at the last election would prefer a Labour-led government, 26.9% a National-led one, while a 19.8% don’t know
• 74.3% of Green party voters prefer a Labour-led Government, 10.7% a National-led one, and
• 56.9% of New Zealand First voters prefer Labour, 9.7% National while a large 33.4% are undecided.

Support for a National-led Government is strong among Act’s 2008 voters - 85% want a National-led Government, none a Labour-led one while 15% don’t know. United Future voters are less emphatic: 57.7% prefer National, 42.3% Labour.

Among 2008 Labour voters 8.1% now prefer a National-led government. Among 2008 National voters 5.2% now prefer a Labour-led one.

Among the 187,000 registered electors who did not vote last time, the survey indicates 49.1% would prefer a Labour-led government, 17.2% a National one. 

In reaction to the poll Labour leader Phil Goff has told RadioLIVE he is not ruling out a deal with Winston Peters.

The poll of 887 respondents was taken between 8am Wednesday October 26 and 9.30am Friday October 28. Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population, the maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 3.3%.

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz