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Will it be alright on the night?

8 Nov 11

Will it be alright on the night?
Richard Long recalls "fright night" 1993

Political commentator Richard Long is asking if anyone else getting a queasy feeling about the constant refrain that this election is all over, bar the shouting, and that the Nats are bolting home 20 points ahead of Labour?


In an opinion piece on Stuff he says the Horizon Research polling, which also takes into account the preferences of undecided voters, “throws up a googly” and brings to mind former leader Jim Bolger's election night fright in 1993, when he almost lost after being assured by the polls that he was bolting home. That led to his election-night denunciation: "Bugger the pollsters".


 Long also refers to a Herald DigiPoll published on October 29 on MMP.


Interestingly the gap between support and opposition is narrowing in this poll.

Horizon’s polls on MMP have never show a majority for it.


DigiPoll results are now coming back to nearer Horizon’s for early September (another MMP poll will be conducted pre-election), and with the poll’s margins of error:





Don’t know

DigiPoll Oct 29




HorizonPoll September





DigiPoll 750 respondents, margin of error +/- 3.6%, HorizonPoll 2,571 respondents +/-1.9%

Horizon reported in September that the undecided group in its survey could decide if MMP is put to another vote against an alternative system in 2014.


It comprises large numbers of women (37.5% ), 35-44 year-olds (44.3%), homemakers otherwise not employed (42.9%), unemployed and beneficiaries (37.5%) and teachers, nurses, police and other trained service workers (36.6%).