Six-way contest for Maori vote, Labour preferred as coalition leader

Results of a poll conducted by the specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel finds a six-way contest now occurring for Maori votes.

In contrast with a mainly two-party Labour and Maori Party contest in 2008, there is now a six-way contest occurring for party votes among Labour, Maori, Mana, NZ First, Green and National.

The Horizon Research Maori Panel poll, covering 799 Maori nationwide between November 15 and 21, is weighted to represent the Maori population at the last census and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

In the contest for the party vote

• Labour is attracting 27.6% of Maori nationwide
• Mana 14.9%
• Maori Party 14.9%
• NZ First 11.3%
• Green 11% and
• National 9.5%.

The level of party support does not correlate to how well a party is seen to represent Maori interests.

For example, the Green party is considered to represent Maori interests significantly better than NZ First, but NZ First is still attracting more party votes of Maori nationwide (NZ First: 11.3%, Green:  11%). 

The Maori and Mana parties are both seen to represent Maori interests significantly better than the Labour party, yet Labour attracts far more votes than either (Labour: 27.6%, Mana: 14.9%, Maori: 14.9%).

Best governing options for Maori:

The poll finds Maori most trust a Labour-led government to deliver best policies for Maori overall (53.9%) compared with 17.5% who think a National-led government will best serve Maori interests.

Only 20% of Maori want the Maori Party to enter a post-election coalition agreement with National.

53.5% would prefer it enter a Labour coalition.

45.8% of Maori would prefer Mana to enter a coalition agreement with Labour, 9.2% National.

If the Maori Party has seats in Parliament after the November 2011 general election, with which of the two main parties would you prefer it to enter a coalition agreement, if any? 

If the Mana Party has seats in Parliament after the November 2011 general election, with which of the two main parties would you prefer it to enter a coalition agreement, if any? 

On what role the minor parties should play in any Labour or National-led governing arrangements after the election, about 30% of Maori would like to see small parties supporting the government on an issue by issue basis, compared with about 30% who would prefer small parties to accept seats in cabinet in a Labour led government.   

Candidate voting:

Among respondents, 51.3% voted for a Maori party candidate in 2008.

In the 2011 election only 19.5% intend to vote for a Maori Party candidate, 24.6% will vote Labour, 18.5% Mana. Of those that cast their electorate vote for the Maori Party in 2008, only 31.4% will vote Maori Party again. (Note these are results for all seats, not Maori seats only).

Personal income:

By personal income, Labour’s highest support among Maori is coming from those earning less than $20,000 per year (31.8%) and between $30,001 and $50,000 (30%).

By income, the Maori Party’s highest support comes from those earning between $100,001 and $200,000 a year (54.7%) and $100,001 and $150,000 a year (54.7%). Those on middle incomes of $30,001 and $50,000 comprise 18.5% of its current party vote support base.

Mana, aiming to represent the poor, also attracts high personal income earners: 25.1% earning between $150,001 and $200,000 a year and has 17.3% support from those earning $20,000 a year or less and 18.5% from those earning between $20,001 and $30,000 a year.

Age group

Through all age groups the Maori Party has similar levels of support of about 14%, with a slight rise among 18-24 year-olds.

Labour is strongest among 25-34 year-olds (33.3%) and 18-24 year-olds (31.4%).

Mana is strongest among 45-54 year-olds (24%) and has attracted only 6.3% of 18-24 year-olds.

The specialist Horizon Research Maori Panel is recruited to match the Maori population at the 2006 census. Results are weighted to ensure respondent samples are representative of the Maori population.

A full report on this survey is available from Horizon Research Limited.

Contact:

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz