Average Kiwis economic expectations for 2013

A HorizonPoll survey of what Kiwis think will happen with the economy in 2013 finds people positive about agriculture, exporting and research and development. But they expect a decline in manufacturing, employment and household incomes.

Adults nationwide were  asked to give their view of whether the economy, employment, research and development, exporting, agriculture, retail spending, household incomes and environmental improvement would grow, stay the same or decline.

“For most of these areas, around a third of respondents thought there would be no change,” says Grant McInman, manager of Horizon Research.  “However, with employment and manufacturing, only around 20% thought there would be no change and more thought that there would decline rather than growth.”

There was a clear expectation that agriculture would grow, as would exporting.  There was an expectation that there would be slightly more growth than decline in research and development.

On the economy, opinion was split, with 5% more respondents thinking it would decline than grow.

“Generally, people with a household income of $70,000 or more are likely to have a more positive than negative view of the economy,” says McInman.  That view tends to get stronger as household incomes rise, but those with personal incomes of $200,000 or more and those with post-graduate degrees had a more negative than positive view of the economy.  Business proprietors and self-employed respondents also had a more negative than positive view of the economy.

The outlook on household incomes, employment and manufacturing were the most negative and appear to be inter-related. 

35% more respondents expected household incomes to decline in 2013 than expected them to grow, but only 7% more respondents expected retail spending to decline than expected it to grow.  This suggests that retail spending may well hold up if household incomes did fall.

10% more respondents expected a decline in environmental improvement than expected growth.

The HorizonPoll survey of 2,425 respondents aged 18+ was conducted nationwide from 23 November 2012 to 5 December 2012.

Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, education level, personal income and party vote 2011, to represent the New Zealand adult population at the 2006 census and last general election, the survey has a maximum margin of error of +/-2.0%

Fairfax Stuff coverage of this and NZIER research with similar findings is here.

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

Telephone: 021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz

On the web: www.horizonpoll.co.nz