Close voting result likely between the colourful silver fern flags

Voting in the referendum to choose an alternative New Zealand flag is likely to narrowly favour the design featuring the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue.

It wins marginally over the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue as a result of the transfer of preferences.

However, less than 1% of votes separate the two designs after four iterations to transfer preferences of those voting for the three other designs.

This makes the result too close to call.

A new Horizon Research poll finds that among respondents who say they are 100% likely to vote, the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue flag was in second place until the penultimate iteration, when it gained more transferable votes from the exclusion of the Red Peak design to win the vote marginally over the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue.

Among this group the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue flag has 48.4% of votes after preferences are transferred, the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue 47.6%.

For all respondents who were enrolled to vote (and regardless of whether they thought they would vote or not), a similar pattern occurred; however, in this instance the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue won marginally over the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue by just 48.1% to 47.9%, a winning margin of just 0.2%.

The nationwide poll of 2,075 adults, representing the 18+ population at the last census, has a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.

Little desire to change

Horizon finds there is still no strong desire among adults nationwide to change the flag.

34% said they would like to see the flag change, 58% said they did not want to see it change and 7% were unsure.

Among those who are enrolled to vote and say they are 100% likely to, the number wanting a flag change rises to 38%.

The full iteration tables and poll summary report can be downloaded here, but the effect of the voting (among those enrolled and who say they are 100% likely to vote) was:

• The Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue received the most first preference votes.
• The Silver Fern with Black and White was eliminated in the first iteration.  42% of its votes were reallocated to the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue, 31% to the Koru flag, 12% to the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue and 7% to Red Peak.  7% were not transferable.
• The Koru flag was eliminated in the second iteration.  50% of its votes were reallocated to Red Peak, 21% to Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue and 20% to the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue.  9% were not transferable.
• Red Peak was eliminated in iteration 3.  45% of its votes were reallocated to the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue and 39% to the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue.  16% were not transferable.
• The Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue wins marginally over the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue as a result of the transfer of preferences. 

Preferences by 2014 general election party vote:

The iterations analysed by respondents’ party vote in the 2014 general election shows that:

• National Party voters prefer the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue over the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue
• Labour Party voters prefer the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue  over the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue
• Green Party voters prefer the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue over Red Peak but only because of reallocated preferences.
• New Zealand First voters, Maori Party voters, Internet-MANA Party voters and Conservative Party voters clearly prefer the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue over the Silver Fern with Black, White and Blue
• The sub-sample of United Future voters is too small for a definitive iteration report but indications are that these voters have a preference for the Silver Fern with Red, White and Blue.

For further information please contact Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz; telephone 021 076 2040.