PM change could put more than 700,000 votes put into play

A HorizonPoll survey finds the party votes of hundreds of thousands of voters could be put into play by the choice of a new Prime Minister.

This could determine the outcome of the October 14 2023 general election.

The January 19-21, 2023 survey of 1,068 respondents aged 18+, representing the New Zealand adult population, concluded a day before Chris Hipkins was confirmed as New Zealand’s new Prime Minister.

Overall, it indicates 9% of adults, who voted in 2020, were more likely to vote Labour as a result of the coming change in Prime Minister, 13% were less likely. Overall, 58% said a change would make no difference to their party choice.

However, opportunities for parties to gain voters during the post-change period are indicated by 12% overall who said it depended on who the new PM was.

This would put around 480,000 voters into play, along with around 8% (320,000) who said they were not sure if it would make them more or less likely to vote Labour.

Among 2020 Labour voters 14% were more likely to vote Labour as a result of the change, 12%, less likely.

The degree to which Mr Hipkins can make a solid gain depends on his appeal to 11% of those who voted Labour last time who said it depended on who caucus chose, and 11% who said they were not sure yet how they’d vote as a result of the change.

He also has a potential opportunity to pick up 2% of ACT voters, 5% of National, 5% of Green, 14% of Māori Party and 15% of NZ First voters who said they were more likely to vote Labour as a result of a leadership change.

Among National voters 5% said their vote depended on the choice of new PM, while a further 3% said they were not sure.

Among those who were not eligible to vote in 2020, but are now, 5% said they were more likely to vote Labour, while  large numbers said it depended on the choice (25%) or were not sure yet (24%).

Swings from the Māori Party were also indicated: 16% said it would depend on the choice and 5% were not sure. (The result is indicative only due the smaller sample size).

ACT and Green voters had the highest number saying the change would make no difference: 78% (ACT) and 72% Green.  It makes a bigger impact for Labour – with 50% saying it would make no difference.

The extent to which the parties each now make their case for hundreds of thousands of voters put into play by the change could determine the outcome of the October 14 2023 general election, Horizon says.

There are 4 million adults in New Zealand.

At the 2020 election 94.1% of eligible voters were enrolled and 2,919,086 voted (82.2% of those enrolled).

Horizon says it’s latest survey finds 79.9% of those currently enrolled said they are 100% likely to vote in the next general election.

Earlier snap result from the survey on who people prefrred to be the new PM are here, along with 

the top issues people want the new PM to focus on.

Methodology

Horizon Research – Choice of Prime Minister survey

Survey respondents are members of Horizon’s specialist research nationwide panels.

January 19-21, 2023. Respondents 1068, aged 18+ representing the New Zealand adult population.

Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, employment status, education level and party voted for in 2020 general election. Maximum margin of error +/- 3.1%.

The survey was conducted by Horizon in the public interest. It was not commissioned by a client or political party.

We believe better decisions are made when you are listened to.

You are welcome to join our HorizonPoll nationwide research panel.

Contact:

Graeme Colman, Principal, Horizon Research, email: gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz, telephone +64 21 848 576.