Parker 19% ahead of Anderton in Christchurch Mayoral race

Bob Parker has a 19% lead over Jim Anderton as preferred Mayor of Christchurch, according to HorizonPoll.

Parker attracts 46% of voters, Anderton 27% in the special poll of 321 Christchurch City residents between September 23 and 26. Weighted, the survey has a maximum margin of error of +/- 5.5%.

Other candidates score 4%, 3% say they won’t be voting and 16% say they are undecided.

Voters are splitting along party lines:

• 62% of people who voted National at the 2008 election support Parker, 15% Anderton

• 54% who voted Labour support Anderton, 33% Parker

• 90% of Jim Anderton’s Progressives party voters support Anderton, 5% Parker

• 19% of Green voters support Anderton, 15% Parker.

Among the smaller parties Parker has the Maori Party vote 55% to 10%, ACT and United Future voters (though sample sizes are small and are indicative only), while Anderton has New Zealand First voters (68% to 27%).

Parker enjoys strong support among people who did not vote at the last election (19% to Anderton's 9%), or can't remember how they voted (30% to 20%). His lead will be affected if these voters fail to turnout.

By age group:

• Anderton’s strongest support comes among those aged 55 to 64 (43% to Parker’s 29%) and 75 years or older (52% to 34%)

• Parker has good support among 18 to 44 year olds, while among those 45 to 64 years the two are closer, with Parker enjoying a 3% to 5% lead.

By party vote, among those still undecided, 26% are Green voters, 11% Labour, 14% National.

The largest undecided group (48%) is of people who chose not to vote at the last general election, followed by those who don’t know or can’t remember how they voted in 2008 (35%).