Banks failing to carry National vote, Auckland and business

The latest HorizonPoll tracking survey finds Len Brown continuing to gain over John Banks in the Auckland super city Mayoralty race.

Among those who have already voted, Brown’s lead over Banks has increased from 27% to a 32%, and he leads Banks by 40% to 18% among those who have yet to vote (37% and 21% last week).

Applying the maximum margin of error in Banks' favour, Brown would still have a 20% lead among those who have voted.

The HorizonPoll shows:

• Banks is failing to attract expected support from National Party voters.

• Among National Party supporters have who have already voted, 38% back Banks, 36% Brown.

• Among National supporters who have yet to vote, Brown wins 35% to 29%.

The number expecting a Brown win has increased 8% in the past week: 42% now think he will win, 18% expect Banks to be Mayor. Last week it was 34% to 23% for Brown. Expectations of a Banks win have fallen 5% in the past week.

Brown is also winning more support among senior business decision makers.

Business managers, executives, senior professionals, proprietors and self employed who have voted, back Brown 60% to Banks 20%.

Among business decision makers yet to vote, Brown wins 40% to Banks’ 21%.

The HorizonPoll survey of 583 respondents within the super city was conducted between Thursday September 3 and Saturday October 2. Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, employment status, personal income and party vote 2008, the maximum margin of error is +/- 4.1%. The maximum margins of error on the  sub sample of 307 who have already voted is +/- 5.6%, and +/- 5.2% on the sub sample of 356 who have yet to vote.

Among the 307 who say they have already voted:

• 55% support Brown (up from 49% in a September 23-24 poll last week)

• 23% support Banks (22% last week)

• Colin Craig has 11% (no change in a week).

In the seven cities contributing to the new Auckland Council, among votes already cast Brown is ahead in Auckland city, Franklin, Manukau, Waitakere and Papakura.

In North Shore city the two are even at 32% (where Banks led last week), and Bank leads in Rodney.

Among the 356 yet to vote, Banks wins the North Shore and Rodney and the contest is closer in Franklin:

Among those who have voted or have yet to vote, Brown beats Banks across all age groups except those aged 65-74 years.

Banks has more support among those with personal incomes of $100,001 to $150,000 a year, but Brown wins in all other income groups, with twice as much support among middle income groups.

Among 2008 party voters, who are yet to vote, Brown stays head of Banks (35% to 29%) among 2008 National Party voters, while beating Banks among Maori Party, Labour, Green and smaller party voters. Banks has more NZ First Party voters than Brown.

Based on international research on the number of people of say they will vote and actually do, HorizonPoll believes there could be a 52% turnout for the election.

Ballot mailing date ignorance

The last day to mail postal ballots is Wednesday October 6, to guarantee they will be counted when polling closes at noon on Saturday October 9.

However, the attest HorizonPoll shows 43% of electors still don’t know that (down from 51% last week).