Poll finds 10% lead for four year Parliamentary term

If a referendum were held today the country would vote 40% to 30% for extending the term of Parliament from three to four years.

A Horizon Research survey also finds 30% are not sure how they would vote on the issue.

The coalition Government plans a 2026 referendum on extending the term.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said the three parties in the coalition government are keen on the idea.

The Horizon survey finds support for extending the term strongest among older people, higher income earners, voters for National and ACT and those living in the South Island.

The referendum outcome could depend on how those who are currently undecided, if they vote.

Strong support among older people

At 47%, indecision is highest among those aged 18 to 34 years.

This compares with 17%  of those aged 65 to 74 years and only 7% of those aged 75+ being undecided.

Those aged 45 to 54 years are equally split: 37% for and 37% against, with 26% undecided.

Views by party vote

Those who voted for National and ACT at the last election are strongly for it. However, New Zealand First voters oppose by 47% to 40%.

National (58%) and ACT (62%) voters support a four year term. More Green Party voters support it (46%) than oppose (29%). Labour voters are split 38% against, 36% for, while Te Pāti Māori voters are 53% against and 32% for.

56% of those who chose not to vote in 2023 are undecided, 27% against and 17% for.

Strong differences by income

Support changes dramatically as household incomes rise.

Those in households earning less than $50,000 a year are almost evenly split (37% against, 36% for) while 55% of those in households earning more than $150,000 a year support and 19% oppose.

Support rises significantly to 72% among those with personal incomes of $150,000 a year. 20% of this group oppose and only 8% are undecided.

By location, support follows the overall result in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, and the upper and lower North Island.

However, it is significantly higher (50% for) in the South Island, excluding Christchurch.

Horizon self-commissioned the survey of 1,025 respondents aged 18+ between December 16 and 21, 2024 as one of its public-interest projects.

The total sample is weighted on age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income and Party Vote 2023 to match the adult population.

The survey has a maximum margin of error of ±3.1% overall.

For further information please contact

Graeme Colman, Principal, Horizon Research, telephone 021 848 576, email gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz