Business poll indicates no double dip recession

Business decision-makers believe New Zealand is not headed for a double-dip recession, a poll commissioned by the Sunday Star-Times shows.

Almost half (49.6%) of those with key decision-making roles in business say they do not believe the country will go back into recession, auguring if not a return to growth in 2011, at least no return to decline.

The remainder are quite evenly split between believing a double dip will occur, and those who say they simply do not know what the coming year holds.

The HorizonPoll survey of 2000 people found that substantially fewer respondents from the general public believed a double-dip recession could be avoided – 27.6% expected it compared to 39.6% doubtful.

But optimism that New Zealand will avoid a fresh downturn does not mean there is much hope for a quick return to growth.

The Sunday Star Times reports this morning that just over half (55.1%) of those polled either believed it would take two to three years – or even 4-5 years – for "a strong economic recovery" to emerge. That figure rose to 65.1% among business decision-makers able to make the investment decisions that will play a part in shaping any such recovery.

By contrast, just 1.5% of respondents felt the economy would grow strongly in 2011, with 26.6% believing it would grow, albeit weakly.

The poll confirms other recent surveys, such as last week's from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, which suggest a growing belief that New Zealand will avoid a double dip.