Te Pāti Māori support needed to form government

Neither Labour nor National-led coalitions can form a government without support from Te Pāti Māori, according to the latest Horizon Research political poll.

Labour and Green would together have 59 seats and National and ACT 57 seats. 61 are needed for a majority in a 120 seat Parliament.

The survey finds Te Pāti Māori has 2.9% support among definite voters. If it retains one electorate seat this would give it 4 seats in Parliament.

New Zealand Frist, with 4%,  has slipped below 5% support and without an electorate seat would not be in Parliament.

The results differ from other political surveys.

They are for 897 respondents aged 18+ who are both registered to vote and who say they are 100% likely to vote. 

The survey was conducted between January 23 and 28, 2023, in the week after Labour changed its leader and Chris Hipkins became Prime Minister. It was conducted before any policy changes or new policy announcements were made.

The table results highlighted in red show significantly higher numbers of Labour and National's 2020 voters are not yet registered or 100% likely to vote.

Nearly 13% of registered voters are undecided.

Results are rounded up when reported (e.g. NZ First at 3.6% becomes 4%).

The seats result using the electoral commission’s Parliamentary seat calculator:

Stuff news coverage of this survey is here.

Methodology

The survey had 1,147 respondents overall, of whom 897 were both registered and 100% likely to vote.

The respondents are from Horizon Research's two specialised online research panels and a third online panel used for source diversity.

Results are weighted by age, gender, educational level, employment status, ethnicity and party voted for at the 2020 general election.

At a 95% confidence the maximum margin of error on the sample overall is +/- 2.9% and +/- 3.3% on the sub-sample of 897 definite voters.

Horizon conducted the survey in the public intrest. It was not commissoned by a political party or client.

Contribute your opinions

You’re welcome to join the HorizonPoll panel.

Contact:

For further information please contact Graeme Colman, Principal, Horizon Research, telephone 021 848 576, email gcolman@horizonrsearch.co.nz