Brown-Palino gap 15.8%: Horizon's call 14%

Horizon's mid voting poll for all voters found a 14% gap likely between candidates Len Brown and John Palino.

The official provisional final result was a 15.8% gap.

Our earlier story regarding these results, looking at different scenarios, was:

A mid-election poll shows only a 4% gap between Auckland Mayoral candidates Len Brown and John Palino.

Mr Brown has secured 37.4% of votes cast up until October 2, Mr Palino 33%.

The outcome will depend on how many of the super city’s voters will post back or return ballots before voting closes at noon on Saturday October 12.

If all those who are both registered and say they are 100% likely to vote actually do vote Mr Brown would win over Mr Palino by 8.3%. (Brown 38.2%, Palino 29.9%).

However, removing the 100% likely to vote filter, to take into account all eligible voters, there is a 14% lead for Mr Brown.

Full tables covering the all-eligible voter scenario are here.

At October 2 12.5% of eligible voters had returned ballot papers to the returning officer.

Significant movement in voting patterns, compared with the October 2 snapshot, could occur before voting closes.

The exit and likely vote results are from a Horizon Research survey of 1,072 Aucklanders aged 18+, conducted between 3pm October 1 and midnight October 2, 2013.  Results are weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, educational status, personal income and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the Auckland adult population. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 3%.

The poll has been conducted independently in the public interest and not for any candidate.

Horizon Research says a lower turn out at October 2 was favouring Mr Palino.

Getting voters out will be key to the success of either main contenders’ campaigns.

Those yet to vote favour Mr Brown more than Mr Palino. Of those yet to vote 20.5% are still undecided.

Those yet to vote and who are still undecided are leaning 19.5% to Mr Palino, 12.4% to Mr Brown. However, when the undecided are filtered by those who say they are 100% likely to vote, they lean 8.4% to Mr Brown and 5.8% to Mr Palino.

A Horizon June 13-21 poll of 1,106 adult Aucklanders, found a 12% gap between Messrs Brown and Palino when respondents were given a choice of them, Mana Party candidate Mr John Minto and others.

The Mayoralty election is a two horse race to date.

Mr Minto has won 3.6% of votes cast up until midnight October 2, Uesifili Unasa 2.4%, Rueben Shadbolt 2.3% and Penny Bright 2%.

Among those who had voted by October 3, Mr Brown was winning in five of the seven former cities which make up the new super city.

Mr Palino was winning Franklin – and enjoying overwhelming support on the North Shore.

The result was close in Rodney and East Auckland (Pakuranga, Howick, Botany and Whitford).

The closer mid-election result in South Auckland (32.8% Brown, 27.4% Palino)  could indicate Mr Brown has yet to get voters out there.

Full results tables, for those who had voted at October 2 and say they are 100% likely to vote are here.

FOOTNOTE: OCTOBER 14 2013

Official preliminary results, after counting of 348,989 votes,  give Mr Brown a 15.8% lead over Mr Palino. This compares with Horizon's all-eligible voter result, indicating there would be a 14.1 % gap. (The Horizon poll margin of error was +/- 3%).

A Key Research poll for the Herald on Sunday, published 6 days before voting closed, reported there could be a 45% gap between the main candidates (Brown 66%, Palino 21%).

For further information please contact:

Grant McInman

Manager

Horizon Research

021 076 2040

E-mail: gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz