HorizonPoll: NZ First support over 5%, could determine who governs

The latest political poll by Horizon Research finds New Zealand First with 6.75% support – and in a position to decide which parties would form a government.

This result would deliver the party 9 seats in a 120-seat Parliament.

Horizon finds Labour would win 40 seats, the Green Party 15.

National would win 37 seats and ACT 17.

Te Pāti Māori (on 1.74%) would have two seats if it retains one electorate seat.

If New Zealand First should decide to go into coalition with National and ACT a new government would have 63 seats.

If it chose to work with a Labour and Green , that coalition would have 64 seats.

This nationwide online poll result is from 911 adults who are both registered to vote and 100% likely to vote.

The poll was conducted between October 20 and 25, in the week after New Zealand First’s October 15-16 annual conference. At a 95% confidence level, the poll’s maximum margin of error is +/- 3.2%. Horizon notes the New Zealand First result is within the margin of error overall and for its sub-sample size.

 

Urban and rural support:

Labour has more of its support coming from people in large cities (29%) compared to National (26%).

Registered and definite voters in regional cities give Labour 32% of its support, National (26%), Act (12%), Green (8%) and NZ First (6%).

In regional towns Labour (25%) and National (26%) are level, but NZ First has 9%, ACT 17% and the Greens 8%.

In rural but not remote areas National has 29% support, Labour 27%, NZ First 9%.

Because of the small sample size, results are not reliable and not available for remote rural areas.

Results above are for registered voters who are 100% likely to vote, and rounded.

Party loyalty:

Horizon says New Zealand First retains the votes of 63% of those who voted for it at the 2020 general election – but seems to have attracted new supporters mostly from other minor parties.

Its strongest support is coming from people living in regional cities, small towns and rural areas.

Its support is also highest among those aged 75+ (23% of those who intend to vote for it).

Labour has 58% support from those who voted for it in 2020, losing 10% to National and 7% to the Green party.

National has 78% support from those who voted for it in 2020, losing 3% to Labour and 4% to ACT.

ACT has 67% loyalty and 10.5% of its current support comes from 2020 National voters.

Comment:

Horizon’s Principal, Graeme Colman, says:

“In just a week after relaunching into election mode, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters appears to have walked straight into the throne room. He and his party could play kingmaker if this result were reflected at next year’s general election.

“Between the major parties the contest is close. Labour is ahead of National in large and regional cities and close to National in small towns and rural areas.

 “If New Zealand First should not achieve an electoral seat or 5% of the vote, then the contest is very close.”

 

Overall result for definite and not definite voters:

The unrounded results for all 1,154 respondents surveyed and all the parties measured, and results for the sub-set of 911 respondents who are both registered and 100% likely to vote are:

Methodology:

Respondents were asked if they were registered to vote, their percentage likelihood to vote in the next general election (on a scale from 0% to 100%) and then which party they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow.

The poll was conducted between October 20 and 25, 2022. It has 1,154 respondents aged 18+. The total sample is weighted on age, gender, ethnicity, education, region and Party Vote 2020 to match the New Zealand adult (18+) population. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.9% overall. The maximum margin of error on the sub-sample of 911 who are both registered and 100% likely to vote is +/- 3.2%.

Horizon conducted the poll in the public interest. It was not commissioned by any political party.

Contact:

Graeme Colman, Principal, Horizon Research

Email: gcolman@horizonresearch.co.nz

Telephone: +64 21 848 576.

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